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书名:定州晌盟侔网络技术有限公司|作者:笑无语|本书类别:古言|更新时间:12:36:15|字数:3896字

????资源品价格反弹,猪肉价继续上涨  ——2月下旬行业景气一览  天风策略,刘晨明/李如娟/许向真  报告联系人,韩旭东/吴黎艳  报告内容和数据交流请联系:李如娟/许向真  2月下旬行业概述  详细行业数据参见后文。  1、2月下中观景气度概述  上游资源类:原油价格2月下先涨后跌,当前布油65美元左右。煤炭主要品种中,动力煤现货价格继续上调;焦炭继续提价。需求方面,粗钢产量节后有所回升;6大发电集团日均耗煤量节后回升至59.06万吨(2月上半月日均40.69万吨);库存方面,六大集团煤炭可用天数大幅回落至24.76天(2月15日为38天);国内大中型钢厂炼焦煤可用天数降至16.3天,焦炭平均可用天数维持11天。贵金属方面,伦敦金价、银价都有不同幅度下挫。  中游制造类:钢铁2月下主要品种价格稳中有升;高炉开工率维持低位的65.75%;螺纹钢库存2月下继续上升,压制价格端。建材方面水泥价格六大区域均有不同程度回调;玻璃价格指数震荡趋弱。海运指数方面2月下回升。  下游消费类:地产销售方面,2月下成交显着回暖。汽车方面,1月新能源车销量9.6万辆,同比149.5%。  2、半月行业估值及重要政策  2月下(截止28日)市场继续反弹,涨幅排名前5的申万一级行业分别是非银(15.23%)、计算机(12.59%)、传媒(11.16%)、通信(10.84%)、军工(9.66%);涨幅垫底的是食品(5.59%)、家电(5.74%)、电气(7.62%)、公用事业(5.74%)、休闲服务(5.59%)。  从PE历史序列来看(除周期),经过年初大涨,目前交运、食品、银行、非银、通信估值高于12年以来中位数,其余各行业估值低于12年以来中位数。下载APP 阅读本文更深度报道  从周期行业PB历史序列来看,目前钢铁、建材、采掘、有色、化工估值仍然低于12年以来中位数。  过去半个月核心行业政策如下:  2月下行业景气度详细数据  1、上游资源:油价震荡,煤价反弹,金属价格回升  1、原油:油价小幅震荡走高,OPEC原油产量同比大幅回落  2、煤炭:煤价反弹,日耗煤量大幅回升  3、有色:金属价格总体回升,库存有升有降  二、中游材料与制造:螺纹钢价格回升,水泥价格仍在回落;1月挖机销量t总比增速回落至10%  1、钢铁:钢价回升,开工率和产能利用率反弹至59.2%和69.2%  2、建材:水泥价格仍在回落  3、化工:化工品价格窄幅波动,有所企稳  4、机械:1月,挖掘机销量1.18万台,同比+10%,增速回落  5、轻工:文化纸和包装纸价格总体稳定  三、下游消费:猪肉价继续上涨;费城半导体指数持续走高;新能源汽车1月销量同比走高至148.75%  1、地产:一线城市二手住宅价格指数环比低位回升,二三线持续走低  2、汽车:汽车1月销量同比-15.8%,跌幅扩大;新能源汽车销量95.7万辆,同比+148.75%,爆发式增长  3、家电:1月家用空调同比增速回落至-0.5%  4、食品饮料:茅台(600519)、五粮液(000858)、汾酒价格稳定,老窖、水井坊、洋河价格走高  5、医药:中药材价格持续回升,维生素价格稳定  6、农业:仔猪、生猪、猪肉价格均大幅上涨,鸡肉价震荡,鸡蛋价格大幅回落  7、电子:液晶电视面板价格企稳,显示器、笔记本面板价格下滑,内存价格持续走低,费城半导体指数持续反弹  8、传媒:1月份电影票房收入环比-23.0%,同比-32.0%  四、金融与公用事业:10年期国债收益率反弹,A股成交量大幅走高,陆股通买入额占比回落  1、银行:DR001/DR007走高,10年期国债到期收益率反弹至3.17%  2、证券:成交量大幅走高,融资融券余额持续反弹,陆股通买入额占比回落  3、保险:1月太平洋(601099)人寿、平安人寿寿险增速同比走低  4、电力:12月二产、三产用电量同比回升,一产大幅下跌  5、交运:波罗的海干散货指数小幅反弹,上海集装箱运价指数持续回落,民航客运量同比增速走低  风险提示:宏观经济下行风险,中美贸易摩擦不确定性。  注:文中报告节选自天风证券研究所已公开发布研究报告,具体报告内容及相关风险提示等详见完整版报告。  证券研究报告??《策略·行业景气:资源品价格反弹,猪肉价继续上涨》  对外发布时间 ???2019年3月4日  报告发布机构 ???天风证券股份有限公司(已获中国证监会许可的证券投资咨询业务资格)  本报告分析师? ??刘晨明 SAC 执业证书编号:  S1110516090006  李如娟 SAC 执业证书编号:  S1110518030001  许向真 SAC 执业证书编号:  S1110518070006  联系人? ? ? ? ? ? ? 吴黎艳  特别提示:公众微信号“fenxishixubiao”  天风策略团队成员介绍  刘晨明? ? ? 联席首席。南开大学国际金融硕士,先后任职于华泰证券(601688)、安信证券、天风证券从事策略研究,主要负责大势研判和行业比较研究  韩旭东? ? ? 香港大学MBA,负责海外映射研究  李如娟? ? ??中山大学金融硕士,工学学士;先后任职于广证恒生、中银国际和天风证券从事行业和策略研究;目前主要负责行业比较  姜禄彬? ? ? 乔治华盛顿大学金融系硕士,密苏里州立大学会计系硕士,美国CPA,负责专题研究  许向真? ? ? 厦门大学金融学硕士,保险学学士,主要负责政策跟踪和行业比较  吴黎艳? ? ? 武汉大学会计硕士,会计学学士本文首发于微信公众号:分析师徐彪。文章内容属作者个人观点,不代表网立场。投资者据此操作,风险请自担。

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74 xiu xian fu wu 5. 59.   cong PE li shi xu lie lai kan chu zhou qi, jing guo nian chu da zhang, mu qian jiao yun shi pin yin hang fei yin tong xin gu zhi gao yu 12 nian yi lai zhong wei shu, qi yu ge hang ye gu zhi di yu 12 nian yi lai zhong wei shu. xia zai APP yue du ben wen geng shen du bao dao   cong zhou qi hang ye PB li shi xu lie lai kan, mu qian gang tie jian cai cai jue you se hua gong gu zhi reng ran di yu 12 nian yi lai zhong wei shu.   guo qu ban ge yue he xin hang ye zheng ce ru xia:   2 yue xia hang ye jing qi du xiang xi shu ju   1 shang you zi yuan: you jia zhen dang, mei jia fan dan, jin shu jia ge hui sheng   1 yuan you: you jia xiao fu zhen dang zou gao, OPEC yuan you chan liang tong bi da fu hui luo   2 mei tan: mei jia fan dan, ri hao mei liang da fu hui sheng   3 you se: jin shu jia ge zong ti hui sheng, ku cun you sheng you jiang   er zhong you cai liao yu zhi zao: luo wen gang jia ge hui sheng, shui ni jia ge reng zai hui luo 1 yue wa ji xiao liang t zong bi 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